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Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Johvi Phoenix

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Tartu Kalev

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.6%0-21.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-02.2%1-14.5%1-24.4%1-32.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.2%2-16.4%2-26.3%2-34.2%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.1%3-16.1%3-26.0%3-34.0%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-18.8%4+-28.7%4+-35.8%4+-4+4.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 47.6% 2.10 +8.6%

Draw 19.5% 23.8% 4.20 -10.9%

Away win 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

Over 2.5 72.0% 82.0% 1.22 -12.2%

Over 3.5 52.0% 63.7% 1.57 -18.4%

BTTS 69.6% 82.0% 1.22 -15.1%

Home O1.5 77.3% 69.4% 1.44 +11.3%

Away O1.5 56.9% 63.7% 1.57 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.6%

H 52% / xG 2.9-2.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 2–1 6.4%

#3 3–1 6.1%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Johvi Phoenix2.9

Tartu Kalev2.0

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JOHVI PHOENIX · PPG 2.33

TARTU KALEV · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Johvi Phoenix (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +8.6%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.9%

Tartu Kalev (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Johvi Phoenix face Tartu Kalev in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Johvi Phoenix a 52% chance, the draw 20% and Tartu Kalev 29%, so Johvi Phoenix are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Johvi Phoenix and 2.0 for Tartu Kalev (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Johvi Phoenix are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.09 for Tartu Kalev. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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