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Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:30

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

UPCOMING

Tallinna Kalev II

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 85% chance

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.7%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.9%1-12.7%1-22.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.6%2-15.3%2-23.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.7%3-16.8%3-25.0%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-118.5%4+-213.4%4+-36.5%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.1% 66.7% 1.50 +5.1%

Draw 14.7% 20.0% 5.00 -15.9%

Away win 15.2% 25.0% 4.00 -23.5%

Over 2.5 83.0% 85.5% 1.17 -2.9%

Over 3.5 59.9% 70.9% 1.41 -15.5%

BTTS 67.8% 83.3% 1.20 -18.6%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob67.8%

H 70% / xG 3.9-1.5 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.8%

#2 4–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 3.8%

#4 2–1 5.3%

#5 5–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parnu JK Vaprus U213.9

Tallinna Kalev II1.5

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 59.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PARNU JK VAPRUS U21 · PPG 2.10

TALLINNA KALEV II · PPG 0.69

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

85%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.44 for Home, form 2.10 vs 0.69 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (H) 70.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +5.1%

Draw 14.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -15.9%

Tallinna Kalev II (A) 15.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 face Tallinna Kalev II in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parnu JK Vaprus U21 a 70% chance, the draw 15% and Tallinna Kalev II 15%, so Parnu JK Vaprus U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21 and 1.5 for Tallinna Kalev II (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parnu JK Vaprus U21 are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.69 for Tallinna Kalev II.

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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