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Levadia U19 vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:30

Levadia U19

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Johvi Phoenix

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 74% chance

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.08 vs 0.85 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.1%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.8%1-15.9%1-23.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.9%2-18.5%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-111.5%4+-27.0%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 50.0% 2.00 +27.8%

Draw 15.4% 23.1% 4.33 -20.0%

Away win 20.7% 38.5% 2.60 -27.7%

Over 2.5 68.4% 80.0% 1.25 -14.5%

Over 3.5 49.4% 61.0% 1.64 -19.0%

BTTS 63.5% 83.3% 1.20 -23.8%

Home O1.5 74.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 64% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–1 5.9%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadia U192.8

Johvi Phoenix1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIA U19 · PPG 2.08

JOHVI PHOENIX · PPG 0.85

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

74%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.08 vs 0.85 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Levadia U19 (H) 63.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +27.8%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -20.0%

Johvi Phoenix (A) 20.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadia U19 face Johvi Phoenix in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadia U19 a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Johvi Phoenix 21%, so Levadia U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Levadia U19 and 1.2 for Johvi Phoenix (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadia U19 are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.85 for Johvi Phoenix.

Levadia U19 vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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