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JK Tabasalu vs Luunja Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

JK Tabasalu

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

UPCOMING

Luunja

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 80% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.5% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.6%0-23.9%0-32.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-03.2%1-17.0%1-27.5%1-35.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.1%2-16.8%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.6%3 3-02.0%3-14.4%3-24.7%3-33.4%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.3%4+-23.5%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 25.0% 4.00 +41.6%

Draw 20.8% 20.0% 5.00 +2.4%

Away win 43.7% 66.7% 1.50 -34.4%

Over 2.5 72.5% 83.3% 1.20 -13.0%

Over 3.5 50.8% 64.9% 1.54 -21.8%

BTTS 68.8% 77.5% 1.29 -11.3%

Home O1.5 55.8% — — —

Away O1.5 58.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob68.8%

A 44% / xG 1.9-2.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.5%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JK Tabasalu1.9

Luunja2.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JK TABASALU · PPG 1.60

LUUNJA · PPG 1.20

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

80%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

JK Tabasalu (H) 35.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +41.6%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +2.4%

Luunja (A) 43.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

JK Tabasalu face Luunja in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JK Tabasalu a 35% chance, the draw 21% and Luunja 44%, so Luunja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for JK Tabasalu and 2.2 for Luunja (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JK Tabasalu are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.20 for Luunja.

JK Tabasalu vs Luunja Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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