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Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs JK Tabasalu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:00

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

JK Tabasalu

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.0%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.8%1-13.5%1-22.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.1%2-16.3%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.1%3-17.6%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-014.1%4+-117.5%4+-210.9%4+-34.5%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.6% 61.7% 1.62 +11.1%

Draw 15.8% 21.1% 4.75 -15.0%

Away win 15.7% 27.8% 3.60 -26.1%

Over 2.5 72.0% 83.3% 1.20 -13.6%

Over 3.5 52.4% 74.1% 1.35 -29.3%

BTTS 63.1% 82.0% 1.22 -23.0%

Home O1.5 77.9% 79.4% 1.26 -1.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 64.1% 1.56 -42.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 69% / xG 3.6-1.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 4–1 6.9%

#3 2–1 6.3%

#4 1–1 3.5%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parnu JK Vaprus U213.6

JK Tabasalu1.2

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PARNU JK VAPRUS U21 · PPG 2.00

JK TABASALU · PPG 0.93

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.37 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.93 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (H) 68.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +11.1%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -15.0%

JK Tabasalu (A) 15.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 face JK Tabasalu in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parnu JK Vaprus U21 a 69% chance, the draw 16% and JK Tabasalu 16%, so Parnu JK Vaprus U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21 and 1.2 for JK Tabasalu (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parnu JK Vaprus U21 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.93 for JK Tabasalu. This match finished 6-0.

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs JK Tabasalu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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