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Tulevik vs Legion Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 09:30

Tulevik

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

UPCOMING

Legion

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 83% chance

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.0% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.3%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.4%1-11.4%1-20.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-03.5%2-13.3%2-21.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-027.8%4+-126.4%4+-212.5%4+-34.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.4% 85.5% 1.17 -9.4%

Draw 14.8% 13.3% 7.50 +6.6%

Away win 7.8% 11.8% 8.50 -20.2%

Over 2.5 83.0% 83.3% 1.20 -0.4%

Over 3.5 65.6% 70.9% 1.41 -7.5%

BTTS 61.5% 69.0% 1.45 -10.8%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 26.1% 34.8% 2.87 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob61.5%

H 77% / xG 4.9-0.9 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.0%

#2 5–0 6.8%

#3 4–1 6.6%

#4 5–1 6.4%

#5 2–2 1.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tulevik4.9

Legion0.9

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 65.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TULEVIK · PPG 1.67

LEGION · PPG 0.42

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

83%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.93 for Home, form 1.67 vs 0.42 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tulevik (H) 77.4%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -9.4%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +6.6%

Legion (A) 7.8%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tulevik face Legion in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tulevik a 77% chance, the draw 15% and Legion 8%, so Tulevik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.9 for Tulevik and 0.9 for Legion (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tulevik are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.42 for Legion. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +20.2%.

Tulevik vs Legion Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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