Today / Japan - J3 League / Roasso Kumamoto vs Nara Club

Roasso Kumamoto vs Nara Club Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:00

Roasso Kumamoto

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLW ·

UPCOMING

Nara Club

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.4%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.1%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 25.4% 34.5% 2.90 -15.8%

Over 2.5 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.5% 2.74 -13.4%

BTTS 53.0% 62.9% 1.59 -15.7%

Home O1.5 47.9% 52.4% 1.91 -8.5%

Away O1.5 29.0% 41.7% 2.40 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Roasso Kumamoto1.6

Nara Club1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROASSO KUMAMOTO · PPG 1.21

NARA CLUB · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Roasso Kumamoto (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +2.9%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Nara Club (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Roasso Kumamoto face Nara Club in Japan - J3 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Roasso Kumamoto a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Nara Club 25%, so Roasso Kumamoto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Roasso Kumamoto and 1.0 for Nara Club (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Roasso Kumamoto are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.88 for Nara Club.

Roasso Kumamoto vs Nara Club Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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