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Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 09:00

Matsumoto Yamaga

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDD ·

UPCOMING

Osaka

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.7%0-26.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.4%1-112.7%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-18.3%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 47.6% 2.10 -18.5%

Draw 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Away win 35.7% 33.3% 3.00 +7.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 30.5% 3.28 +4.0%

BTTS 55.5% 57.1% 1.75 -2.9%

Home O1.5 38.4% 48.1% 2.08 -20.1%

Away O1.5 36.8% 36.8% 2.72 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.5%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Matsumoto Yamaga1.3

Osaka1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA · PPG 1.18

OSAKA · PPG 1.37

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Matsumoto Yamaga (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

Osaka (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Matsumoto Yamaga face Osaka in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Matsumoto Yamaga a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Osaka 36%, so Matsumoto Yamaga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.2 for Osaka (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Matsumoto Yamaga are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.37 for Osaka. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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