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Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 09:00

Kitakyushu

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DDD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Matsumoto Yamaga

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.7%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.5%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.4%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 40.0% 2.50 +16.0%

Draw 26.9% 32.3% 3.10 -10.0%

Away win 26.8% 40.8% 2.45 -20.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.2% 3.42 -1.1%

BTTS 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 40.0% 2.50 +0.3%

Away O1.5 27.3% 40.8% 2.45 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kitakyushu1.4

Matsumoto Yamaga1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KITAKYUSHU · PPG 1.40

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kitakyushu (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +16.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.0%

Matsumoto Yamaga (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kitakyushu face Matsumoto Yamaga in Japan - J3 League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kitakyushu a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Matsumoto Yamaga 27%, so Kitakyushu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kitakyushu and 1.0 for Matsumoto Yamaga (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kitakyushu are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.06 for Matsumoto Yamaga. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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