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Gainare Tottori vs Renofa Yamaguchi Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Gainare Tottori

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWW ·

UPCOMING

Renofa Yamaguchi

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.5%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 34.5% 2.90 +33.7%

Draw 26.1% 34.5% 2.90 -14.6%

Away win 27.8% 45.5% 2.20 -23.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 52.6% 1.90 -4.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.8% 3.05 -7.5%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.3% 2.61 +4.1%

Away O1.5 27.2% 46.7% 2.14 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gainare Tottori1.5

Renofa Yamaguchi1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GAINARE TOTTORI · PPG 1.93

RENOFA YAMAGUCHI · PPG 1.07

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.50, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gainare Tottori (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +33.7%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.6%

Renofa Yamaguchi (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gainare Tottori face Renofa Yamaguchi in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gainare Tottori a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Renofa Yamaguchi 28%, so Gainare Tottori are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gainare Tottori and 1.0 for Renofa Yamaguchi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gainare Tottori are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.07 for Renofa Yamaguchi. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +39.3%.

Gainare Tottori vs Renofa Yamaguchi Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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