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Ehime FC vs Kitakyushu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Ehime FC

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDW ·

UPCOMING

Kitakyushu

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDD ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 57% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.6%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.5%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.2%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Draw 23.8% 30.3% 3.30 -12.9%

Away win 22.6% 21.7% 4.60 +2.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 33.9% 32.9% 3.04 +3.1%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 57.1% 1.75 -2.4%

Away O1.5 29.9% 26.7% 3.75 +7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ehime FC1.9

Kitakyushu1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EHIME FC · PPG 1.93

KITAKYUSHU · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ehime FC (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -11.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.9%

Kitakyushu (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ehime FC face Kitakyushu in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ehime FC a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Kitakyushu 23%, so Ehime FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ehime FC and 1.0 for Kitakyushu (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ehime FC are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.40 for Kitakyushu. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.5%.

Ehime FC vs Kitakyushu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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