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Tochigi SC vs Kochi United Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Tochigi SC

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDL ·

UPCOMING

Kochi United

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 50% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+33.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.7%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.0%1-19.6%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-16.8%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.7%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 52.4% 1.91 +9.4%

Draw 21.3% 34.5% 2.90 -22.9%

Away win 21.4% 25.6% 3.90 -9.9%

Over 2.5 60.5% 45.5% 2.20 +33.1%

Over 3.5 37.5% 25.8% 3.88 +45.5%

BTTS 55.9% 52.4% 1.91 +6.8%

Home O1.5 60.2% 46.1% 2.17 +30.6%

Away O1.5 26.8% 27.3% 3.66 -1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tochigi SC2.1

Kochi United1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TOCHIGI SC · PPG 1.73

KOCHI UNITED · PPG 1.04

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tochigi SC (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +9.4%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -22.9%

Kochi United (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tochigi SC face Kochi United in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tochigi SC a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Kochi United 21%, so Tochigi SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tochigi SC and 1.0 for Kochi United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tochigi SC are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.04 for Kochi United. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +54.7%.

Tochigi SC vs Kochi United Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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