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Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 09:00

Sagamihara

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWL ·

UPCOMING

Parceiro Nagano

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 50% chance

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a clear edge.

+11.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.2%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.8%1-111.7%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 22.7% 23.8% 4.20 -2.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.1% 2.08 +11.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 29.9% 3.34 +5.9%

BTTS 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Home O1.5 48.1% 54.6% 1.83 -12.0%

Away O1.5 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.5%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sagamihara1.6

Parceiro Nagano0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAGAMIHARA · PPG 1.70

PARCEIRO NAGANO · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sagamihara (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -7.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Parceiro Nagano (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sagamihara face Parceiro Nagano in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sagamihara a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Parceiro Nagano 23%, so Sagamihara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sagamihara and 0.9 for Parceiro Nagano (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sagamihara are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.10 for Parceiro Nagano. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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