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Parceiro Nagano vs Thespakusatsu Gunma Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 09:00

Parceiro Nagano

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Thespakusatsu Gunma

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.0%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.6%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 40.0% 2.50 +27.8%

Draw 24.2% 33.3% 3.00 -16.4%

Away win 24.7% 40.0% 2.50 -22.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 32.9% 30.5% 3.28 +7.9%

BTTS 55.0% 57.8% 1.73 -4.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 41.7% 2.40 +17.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parceiro Nagano1.7

Thespakusatsu Gunma1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PARCEIRO NAGANO · PPG 1.59

THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Parceiro Nagano (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +27.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.4%

Thespakusatsu Gunma (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parceiro Nagano face Thespakusatsu Gunma in Japan - J3 League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parceiro Nagano a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Thespakusatsu Gunma 25%, so Parceiro Nagano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Parceiro Nagano and 1.1 for Thespakusatsu Gunma (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parceiro Nagano are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.09 for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Parceiro Nagano vs Thespakusatsu Gunma Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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