Today / Japan - J3 League / Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Fukushima United

Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Fukushima United Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Thespakusatsu Gunma

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fukushima United

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.8%0-23.7%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.1%1-19.3%1-27.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.8%3-15.8%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.4%4+-23.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 45.5% 2.20 +2.5%

Draw 22.0% 32.3% 3.10 -19.1%

Away win 31.3% 35.7% 2.80 -12.4%

Over 2.5 67.6% 58.8% 1.70 +14.9%

Over 3.5 45.0% 41.5% 2.41 +8.5%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 53.2% 1.88 +4.9%

Away O1.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thespakusatsu Gunma1.9

Fukushima United1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.6% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA · PPG 0.94

FUKUSHIMA UNITED · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Thespakusatsu Gunma (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.1%

Fukushima United (A) 31.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thespakusatsu Gunma face Fukushima United in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thespakusatsu Gunma a 47% chance, the draw 22% and Fukushima United 31%, so Thespakusatsu Gunma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Thespakusatsu Gunma and 1.5 for Fukushima United (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thespakusatsu Gunma are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.09 for Fukushima United. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Fukushima United Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Japan - J3 League Predictions