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Kagoshima United vs FC Ryukyu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Kagoshima United

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDW ·

UPCOMING

FC Ryukyu

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 62% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.7%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.4%1-110.6%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-16.1%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Draw 23.8% 27.0% 3.70 -7.2%

Away win 22.7% 18.2% 5.50 +14.9%

Over 2.5 54.9% 57.8% 1.73 -5.0%

Over 3.5 34.6% 37.6% 2.66 -8.0%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 55.8% 64.1% 1.56 -13.0%

Away O1.5 26.1% 25.0% 4.00 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kagoshima United1.9

FC Ryukyu0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KAGOSHIMA UNITED · PPG 1.93

FC RYUKYU · PPG 0.81

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kagoshima United (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -19.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.2%

FC Ryukyu (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kagoshima United face FC Ryukyu in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kagoshima United a 54% chance, the draw 24% and FC Ryukyu 23%, so Kagoshima United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kagoshima United and 0.9 for FC Ryukyu (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kagoshima United are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.81 for FC Ryukyu. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.5%.

Kagoshima United vs FC Ryukyu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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