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The Town vs Tacoma Defiance Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 02:30

The Town

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

UPCOMING

Tacoma Defiance

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 67% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.8%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.6%1-18.6%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-17.4%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-17.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 57.1% 1.75 +0.4%

Draw 20.7% 27.8% 3.60 -15.3%

Away win 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 50.5% 1.98 -19.8%

BTTS 59.0% 71.4% 1.40 -17.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 67.6% 1.48 -1.9%

Away O1.5 29.5% 44.1% 2.27 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.0%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–2 4.3%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The Town2.3

Tacoma Defiance1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

THE TOWN · PPG 1.73

TACOMA DEFIANCE · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

The Town (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +0.4%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.3%

Tacoma Defiance (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

The Town face Tacoma Defiance in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The Town a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Tacoma Defiance 22%, so The Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for The Town and 1.0 for Tacoma Defiance (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The Town are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.92 for Tacoma Defiance. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

The Town vs Tacoma Defiance Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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