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Necaxa W vs Atlético San Luis W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Necaxa W

PPG 0.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Atlético San Luis W

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 77% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.7%0-26.3%0-35.6%0-4+7.1%1 1-02.4%1-16.5%1-28.6%1-37.6%1-4+9.7%2 2-01.7%2-14.4%2-25.9%2-35.2%2-4+6.6%3 3-00.8%3-12.0%3-22.7%3-32.4%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.0% 10.0% 10.00 +36.0%

Draw 15.5% 18.2% 5.50 -8.8%

Away win 68.5% 83.3% 1.20 -17.8%

Over 2.5 72.6% 78.1% 1.28 -7.1%

Over 3.5 51.1% 55.2% 1.81 -7.5%

BTTS 63.5% 57.8% 1.73 +9.8%

Home O1.5 39.5% 26.6% 3.76 +48.5%

Away O1.5 69.2% 83.3% 1.20 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 19%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 80%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob63.5%

A 68% / xG 1.4-2.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–3 7.6%

#3 0–2 6.3%

#4 1–1 6.5%

#5 0–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Necaxa W1.4

Atlético San Luis W2.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NECAXA W · PPG 0.62

ATLÉTICO SAN LUIS W · PPG 1.54

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

77%

DANGER

xG gap -1.29 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Necaxa W (H) 16.0%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +36.0%

Draw 15.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -8.8%

Atlético San Luis W (A) 68.5%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Necaxa W face Atlético San Luis W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Necaxa W a 16% chance, the draw 16% and Atlético San Luis W 69%, so Atlético San Luis W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Necaxa W and 2.7 for Atlético San Luis W (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Necaxa W are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.54 for Atlético San Luis W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +81.3%.

Necaxa W vs Atlético San Luis W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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