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Argentino de Merlo vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Argentino de Merlo

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Villa Dalmine

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.7%0-120.1%0-29.8%0-33.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-112.1%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-03.8%2-13.7%2-21.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.8%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 30.8% 3.25 -13.4%

Draw 32.1% 35.1% 2.85 -8.5%

Away win 44.0% 44.4% 2.25 -1.0%

Over 2.5 34.2% 33.9% 2.95 +0.9%

Over 3.5 14.2% 15.4% 6.50 -4.6%

BTTS 42.6% 43.5% 2.30 -2.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 25.3% 3.95 +22.1%

Away O1.5 27.6% 33.9% 2.95 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob42.6%

A 44% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.1%

#2 0–0✓ 20.7%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 12.1%

#5 0–2 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino de Merlo0.6

Villa Dalmine1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO DE MERLO · PPG 1.31

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 1.94

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.37, combined xG 1.58 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino de Merlo (H) 23.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.4%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -8.5%

Villa Dalmine (A) 44.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino de Merlo face Villa Dalmine in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino de Merlo a 24% chance, the draw 32% and Villa Dalmine 44%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Argentino de Merlo and 1.0 for Villa Dalmine (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino de Merlo are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.94 for Villa Dalmine. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Argentino de Merlo vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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