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Arsenal Sarandi vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Excursionistas

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-111.2%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.9%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 46.5% 2.15 -17.6%

Draw 26.9% 34.5% 2.90 -13.2%

Away win 34.8% 31.3% 3.20 +11.4%

Over 2.5 49.5% 42.6% 2.35 +16.3%

Over 3.5 28.2% 23.1% 4.33 +13.3%

BTTS 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 38.2% 2.62 -15.9%

Away O1.5 32.6% 26.7% 3.75 +22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Sarandi1.2

Excursionistas1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 1.94

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Sarandi (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -17.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.2%

Excursionistas (A) 34.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Sarandi face Excursionistas in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Sarandi a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Excursionistas 35%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arsenal Sarandi and 1.0 for Excursionistas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Sarandi are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.75 for Excursionistas. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Arsenal Sarandi vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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