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Deportivo Armenio vs Villa San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:30

Deportivo Armenio

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Villa San Carlos

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+15.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.7%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.9%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 34.9% 29.0% 3.45 +20.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 37.0% 2.70 +36.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.7% 45.5% 2.20 +15.9%

Home O1.5 37.5% 38.5% 2.60 -2.5%

Away O1.5 32.6% 25.6% 3.90 +27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 9.7%

#3 1–0✓ 12.1%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Armenio1.3

Villa San Carlos1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO ARMENIO · PPG 1.75

VILLA SAN CARLOS · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Armenio (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -19.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Villa San Carlos (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Armenio face Villa San Carlos in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Armenio a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Villa San Carlos 35%, so Deportivo Armenio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Armenio and 1.1 for Villa San Carlos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Armenio are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Villa San Carlos. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Deportivo Armenio vs Villa San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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