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Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Argentino Quilmes

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Sportivo Italiano

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-116.9%0-28.9%0-33.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.8%2-15.1%2-22.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.3%3-11.3%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 34.5% 2.90 -11.6%

Draw 31.1% 40.0% 2.50 -22.3%

Away win 41.1% 38.2% 2.62 +7.7%

Over 2.5 38.7% 40.0% 2.50 -3.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

BTTS 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 29.4% 3.40 +5.1%

Away O1.5 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

A 41% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.9%

#2 0–0 16.1%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Quilmes0.8

Sportivo Italiano1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO QUILMES · PPG 1.19

SPORTIVO ITALIANO · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.28, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Quilmes (H) 27.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.6%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.3%

Sportivo Italiano (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Quilmes face Sportivo Italiano in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Quilmes a 28% chance, the draw 31% and Sportivo Italiano 41%, so Sportivo Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Argentino Quilmes and 1.1 for Sportivo Italiano (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Quilmes are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.75 for Sportivo Italiano. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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