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Deportivo Recoleta vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 21:30

Deportivo Recoleta

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Olimpia

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.8%0-24.4%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.8%1-110.2%1-27.6%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.5%3-15.2%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.4%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 20.4% 4.90 +109.7%

Draw 22.9% 26.7% 3.75 -8.5%

Away win 34.3% 61.7% 1.62 -44.4%

Over 2.5 62.1% 56.5% 1.77 +9.9%

Over 3.5 39.3% 34.5% 2.90 +14.0%

BTTS 61.9% 57.8% 1.73 +7.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 28.2% 3.55 +73.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 58.8% 1.70 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 75%

ROI 44.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.9%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2✓ 7.6%

#4 2–0 5.9%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Recoleta1.8

Olimpia1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA · PPG 1.38

OLIMPIA · PPG 0.76

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Recoleta (H) 42.8%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +109.7%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.5%

Olimpia (A) 34.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -44.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Recoleta face Olimpia in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Recoleta a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Olimpia 34%, so Deportivo Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.5 for Olimpia (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Recoleta are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.76 for Olimpia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +142.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Deportivo Recoleta vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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