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Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:00

Nacional Asuncion

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sportivo Luqueno

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.0%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.0%1-110.8%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-15.9%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Draw 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Away win 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 28.6% 3.50 +10.3%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.6% 1.83 -10.5%

Away O1.5 25.7% 23.1% 4.33 +6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 71%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0✓ 10.9%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional Asuncion1.8

Sportivo Luqueno0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL ASUNCION · PPG 1.88

SPORTIVO LUQUENO · PPG 1.52

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nacional Asuncion (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Sportivo Luqueno (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional Asuncion face Sportivo Luqueno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional Asuncion a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Sportivo Luqueno 23%, so Nacional Asuncion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nacional Asuncion and 0.9 for Sportivo Luqueno (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional Asuncion are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.52 for Sportivo Luqueno. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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