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América de Cali W vs Santa Fe W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Promotion Group · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 20:30

América de Cali W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santa Fe W

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-16.5%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-111.0%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.3%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.2%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 47.6% 2.10 +12.3%

Draw 24.5% 33.3% 3.00 -15.9%

Away win 22.0% 31.3% 3.20 -17.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.6% 3.76 +4.8%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 45.0% 2.22 +10.8%

Away O1.5 19.3% 31.1% 3.22 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

América de Cali W1.7

Santa Fe W0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AMÉRICA DE CALI W · PPG 2.00

SANTA FE W · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

América de Cali W (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +12.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.9%

Santa Fe W (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

América de Cali W face Santa Fe W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives América de Cali W a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Santa Fe W 22%, so América de Cali W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for América de Cali W and 0.7 for Santa Fe W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, América de Cali W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.56 for Santa Fe W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.8%.

América de Cali W vs Santa Fe W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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