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Millonarios W vs Internacional Palmira W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Promotion Group · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:15

Millonarios W

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Internacional Palmira W

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-13.1%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.8%1-16.9%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.4%2-17.6%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.7%3-15.5%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-15.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.9% 78.1% 1.28 -13.1%

Draw 19.1% 23.8% 4.20 -11.9%

Away win 13.0% 8.3% 12.00 +33.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 29.0% 3.45 +8.7%

BTTS 47.2% 40.0% 2.50 +18.0%

Home O1.5 65.8% 66.7% 1.50 -1.3%

Away O1.5 11.6% 14.5% 6.90 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob47.2%

H 68% / xG 2.2-0.4 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 17.4%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 3–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 7.2%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millonarios W2.2

Internacional Palmira W0.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLONARIOS W · PPG 2.33

INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA W · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.76 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Millonarios W (H) 67.9%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -13.1%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.9%

Internacional Palmira W (A) 13.0%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millonarios W face Internacional Palmira W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millonarios W a 68% chance, the draw 19% and Internacional Palmira W 13%, so Millonarios W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Millonarios W and 0.4 for Internacional Palmira W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millonarios W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.56 for Internacional Palmira W. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +27.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Millonarios W vs Internacional Palmira W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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