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Santa Fe W vs Orsomarso W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Promotion Group · Matchday 1 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 23:00

Santa Fe W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Orsomarso W

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-17.5%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-111.6%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-18.9%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 56.5% 1.77 -8.8%

Draw 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -12.4%

Away win 24.2% 23.1% 4.33 +2.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 45.5% 2.20 +11.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

Home O1.5 44.4% 48.8% 2.05 -9.0%

Away O1.5 18.2% 25.3% 3.95 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0 12.4%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe W1.5

Orsomarso W0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE W · PPG 1.50

ORSOMARSO W · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe W (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -8.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.4%

Orsomarso W (A) 24.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe W face Orsomarso W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe W a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Orsomarso W 24%, so Santa Fe W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Santa Fe W and 0.7 for Orsomarso W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.88 for Orsomarso W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Santa Fe W vs Orsomarso W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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