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Santa Fe W vs Fortaleza W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 20:00

Santa Fe W

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Fortaleza W

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-14.9%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.2%1-18.8%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-18.0%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.0%3-14.9%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-13.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 78.1% 1.28 -24.1%

Draw 23.8% 21.1% 4.75 +7.8%

Away win 16.8% 11.1% 9.00 +30.7%

Over 2.5 46.1% 58.8% 1.70 -21.6%

Over 3.5 27.5% 36.4% 2.75 -14.6%

BTTS 43.6% 47.6% 2.10 -8.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 71.4% 1.40 -30.1%

Away O1.5 16.4% 18.2% 5.50 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 2–0 16.5%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 3–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe W1.8

Fortaleza W0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE W · PPG 1.57

FORTALEZA W · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe W (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -24.1%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.8%

Fortaleza W (A) 16.8%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe W face Fortaleza W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe W a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Fortaleza W 17%, so Santa Fe W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Santa Fe W and 0.5 for Fortaleza W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe W are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.14 for Fortaleza W. This match finished 4-4.

Santa Fe W vs Fortaleza W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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