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Independiente Medellín W vs América de Cali W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 20:00

Independiente Medellín W

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

América de Cali W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-112.1%0-27.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.0%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.0%2-17.3%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.2%3-12.6%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 21.1% 4.75 +47.7%

Draw 25.9% 29.9% 3.35 -7.9%

Away win 43.0% 58.8% 1.70 -26.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

Over 3.5 28.4% 25.3% 3.95 +7.3%

BTTS 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 23.8% 4.20 +28.5%

Away O1.5 36.8% 51.3% 1.95 -28.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Medellín W1.1

América de Cali W1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLÍN W · PPG 2.57

AMÉRICA DE CALI W · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Medellín W (H) 31.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +47.7%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.9%

América de Cali W (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Medellín W face América de Cali W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Medellín W a 31% chance, the draw 26% and América de Cali W 43%, so América de Cali W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Independiente Medellín W and 1.2 for América de Cali W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Medellín W are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 2.00 for América de Cali W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +46.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Independiente Medellín W vs América de Cali W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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