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Santa Fe W vs América de Cali W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Promotion Group · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 22:30

Santa Fe W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

América de Cali W

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-112.1%0-27.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.9%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.0%2-17.2%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.2%3-12.6%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 29.4% 3.40 +21.4%

Draw 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -12.8%

Away win 38.1% 48.8% 2.05 -21.9%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 30.3% 25.8% 3.88 +17.6%

BTTS 52.9% 53.5% 1.87 -1.1%

Home O1.5 30.8% 32.9% 3.04 -6.4%

Away O1.5 36.8% 41.7% 2.40 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

A 38% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe W1.1

América de Cali W1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE W · PPG 1.67

AMÉRICA DE CALI W · PPG 2.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe W (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +21.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.8%

América de Cali W (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe W face América de Cali W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe W a 36% chance, the draw 26% and América de Cali W 38%, so América de Cali W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Santa Fe W and 1.2 for América de Cali W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.22 for América de Cali W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.6%.

Santa Fe W vs América de Cali W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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