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Millonarios W vs La Equidad W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Promotion Group · Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 23:00

Millonarios W

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

La Equidad W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-14.3%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.2%1-18.4%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.6%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.7%3-15.2%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-13.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.1% 71.4% 1.40 -15.9%

Draw 23.6% 25.6% 3.90 -4.8%

Away win 16.3% 12.1% 8.25 +20.7%

Over 2.5 45.8% 48.8% 2.05 -6.1%

Over 3.5 28.3% 27.4% 3.65 +2.0%

BTTS 43.5% 44.4% 2.25 -2.1%

Home O1.5 56.3% 60.6% 1.65 -7.1%

Away O1.5 15.1% 16.7% 6.00 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.5%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.6%

#2 1–0 17.2%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 3–0 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millonarios W1.9

La Equidad W0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLONARIOS W · PPG 2.50

LA EQUIDAD W · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Millonarios W (H) 60.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -15.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.8%

La Equidad W (A) 16.3%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV +20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millonarios W face La Equidad W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millonarios W a 60% chance, the draw 24% and La Equidad W 16%, so Millonarios W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Millonarios W and 0.5 for La Equidad W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millonarios W are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.25 for La Equidad W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Millonarios W vs La Equidad W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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