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La Equidad W vs Internacional Palmira W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Promotion Group · Matchday 2 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 22:00

La Equidad W

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Internacional Palmira W

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-16.9%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.1%1-110.9%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.7%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.2%3-14.6%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 22.0% 24.4% 4.10 -5.9%

Over 2.5 44.9% 43.5% 2.30 +3.3%

Over 3.5 27.0% 23.1% 4.33 +10.2%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 47.9% 46.5% 2.15 +3.0%

Away O1.5 17.5% 25.3% 3.95 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

La Equidad W1.6

Internacional Palmira W0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LA EQUIDAD W · PPG 2.38

INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA W · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

La Equidad W (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.0%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Internacional Palmira W (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

La Equidad W face Internacional Palmira W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Equidad W a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Internacional Palmira W 22%, so La Equidad W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for La Equidad W and 0.6 for Internacional Palmira W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Equidad W are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Internacional Palmira W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 3-0.

La Equidad W vs Internacional Palmira W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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