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Colon Santa Fe vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 20:00

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 2.15 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

UPCOMING

Deportivo Moron

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.6%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.2%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 54.1% 1.85 -1.4%

Draw 24.4% 34.5% 2.90 -17.5%

Away win 22.3% 21.7% 4.60 +1.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 34.7% 2.88 +45.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 16.7% 6.00 +43.3%

BTTS 50.7% 44.4% 2.25 +14.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 40.0% 2.50 +24.8%

Away O1.5 23.5% 16.7% 6.00 +24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 294 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.7%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colon Santa Fe1.7

Deportivo Moron0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 2.15

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colon Santa Fe (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.5%

Deportivo Moron (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colon Santa Fe face Deportivo Moron in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colon Santa Fe a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Deportivo Moron 22%, so Colon Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Colon Santa Fe and 0.8 for Deportivo Moron (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colon Santa Fe are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Moron. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.7%.

Colon Santa Fe vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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