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Chacarita Juniors vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:30

Chacarita Juniors

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

UPCOMING

Atlanta

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-111.3%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.2%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-17.7%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-13.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 43.5% 2.30 -2.0%

Draw 30.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Away win 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Over 2.5 38.8% 32.3% 3.10 +20.3%

Over 3.5 20.4% 15.4% 6.50 +19.6%

BTTS 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%

Home O1.5 32.0% 33.3% 3.00 -4.0%

Away O1.5 23.8% 23.1% 4.33 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 294 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chacarita Juniors1.2

Atlanta0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACARITA JUNIORS · PPG 1.62

ATLANTA · PPG 1.23

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chacarita Juniors (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -2.0%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.3%

Atlanta (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chacarita Juniors face Atlanta in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chacarita Juniors a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Atlanta 27%, so Chacarita Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chacarita Juniors and 0.8 for Atlanta (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chacarita Juniors are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.23 for Atlanta. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +24.9%.

Chacarita Juniors vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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