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São Paulo W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:30

São Paulo W

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gremio W

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-17.2%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-110.9%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.4%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-14.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 69.4% 1.44 -17.6%

Draw 25.5% 28.6% 3.50 -6.5%

Away win 17.4% 15.4% 6.50 +7.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

BTTS 42.6% 47.6% 2.10 -10.5%

Home O1.5 41.3% 54.6% 1.83 -24.4%

Away O1.5 15.4% 18.2% 5.50 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 57% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

São Paulo W1.5

Gremio W0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SÃO PAULO W · PPG 2.67

GREMIO W · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

São Paulo W (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.6%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.5%

Gremio W (A) 17.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

São Paulo W face Gremio W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives São Paulo W a 57% chance, the draw 26% and Gremio W 17%, so São Paulo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for São Paulo W and 0.6 for Gremio W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, São Paulo W are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Gremio W. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%.

São Paulo W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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