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Palmeiras W vs Bahia W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 00:30

Palmeiras W

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bahia W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.4%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.8%1-18.0%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-17.6%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-18.0%4+-23.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.2% 77.5% 1.29 -22.3%

Draw 19.7% 22.2% 4.50 -6.8%

Away win 20.1% 11.8% 8.50 +42.5%

Over 2.5 60.7% 62.5% 1.60 -2.9%

Over 3.5 38.3% 40.0% 2.50 -4.3%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 66.3% 71.4% 1.40 -7.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 22.2% 4.50 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 60% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palmeiras W2.4

Bahia W0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PALMEIRAS W · PPG 2.56

BAHIA W · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Palmeiras W (H) 60.2%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -22.3%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -6.8%

Bahia W (A) 20.1%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +42.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palmeiras W face Bahia W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palmeiras W a 60% chance, the draw 20% and Bahia W 20%, so Palmeiras W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Palmeiras W and 0.9 for Bahia W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palmeiras W are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.50 for Bahia W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +41.0%.

Palmeiras W vs Bahia W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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