Today / Brazil - Brasileiro Women / Ferroviaria W vs Flamengo W

Ferroviaria W vs Flamengo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:30

Ferroviaria W

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flamengo W

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+13.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-19.6%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-112.8%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.6%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 54.1% 1.85 -17.3%

Draw 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -12.8%

Away win 29.1% 27.0% 3.70 +4.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 44.4% 2.25 +13.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Home O1.5 39.2% 42.0% 2.38 -6.7%

Away O1.5 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.1%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria W1.3

Flamengo W0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA W · PPG 2.11

FLAMENGO W · PPG 1.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria W (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -17.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.8%

Flamengo W (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria W face Flamengo W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria W a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Flamengo W 29%, so Ferroviaria W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ferroviaria W and 0.9 for Flamengo W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria W are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.88 for Flamengo W. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.4%.

Ferroviaria W vs Flamengo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Brasileiro Women Predictions