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Al Zawra'a vs Zakho Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Al Zawra'a

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWW ·

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Zakho

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDL ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 49.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.6%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.5%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.0%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 54.1% 1.85 -9.2%

Draw 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -8.2%

Away win 23.9% 27.0% 3.70 -6.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.2% 3.82 +5.8%

BTTS 52.4% 53.8% 1.86 -2.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 46.1% 2.17 -13.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 29.2% 3.42 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.4%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Zawra'a1.5

Zakho0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ZAWRA'A · PPG 1.78

ZAKHO · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Zawra'a (H) 49.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -9.2%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.2%

Zakho (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Zawra'a face Zakho in Iraq - Iraqi League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Zawra'a a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Zakho 24%, so Al Zawra'a are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Zawra'a and 0.9 for Zakho (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Zawra'a are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.10 for Zakho. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Al Zawra'a vs Zakho Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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