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OFI vs Volos NFC Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:30

OFI

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Volos NFC

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.0%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.8%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.9%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.1%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 46.5% 2.15 +12.9%

Draw 23.4% 32.3% 3.10 -16.5%

Away win 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

BTTS 54.7% 57.8% 1.73 -5.4%

Home O1.5 49.8% 50.0% 2.00 -0.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OFI1.8

Volos NFC1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OFI · PPG 1.50

VOLOS NFC · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

OFI (H) 52.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +12.9%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.5%

Volos NFC (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

OFI face Volos NFC in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OFI a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Volos NFC 24%, so OFI are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for OFI and 1.1 for Volos NFC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OFI are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.01 for Volos NFC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 2-0.

OFI vs Volos NFC Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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