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Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

Olympiakos Piraeus

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Atromitos

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 81.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-17.8%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-111.8%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.0%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.6%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 81.3% 1.23 -35.3%

Draw 25.3% 20.0% 5.00 +15.9%

Away win 22.1% 7.7% 13.00 +112.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 58.8% 1.70 -14.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 36.4% 2.75 -13.6%

BTTS 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

Home O1.5 40.4% 72.5% 1.38 -44.3%

Away O1.5 18.5% 14.3% 7.00 +17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.0%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.3%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympiakos Piraeus1.5

Atromitos0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS · PPG 1.90

ATROMITOS · PPG 1.43

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Olympiakos Piraeus (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -35.3%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +15.9%

Atromitos (A) 22.1%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +112.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympiakos Piraeus face Atromitos in Greece - Super League 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Atromitos 22%, so Olympiakos Piraeus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.8 for Atromitos (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.43 for Atromitos. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +112.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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