Today / Greece - Super League 1 / PAOK vs Levadiakos

PAOK vs Levadiakos Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

PAOK

PPG 2.15 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Levadiakos

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.2%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.3%1-110.2%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-110.0%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.5%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.9%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 71.4% 1.40 -21.9%

Draw 22.3% 22.2% 4.50 +0.2%

Away win 21.9% 14.3% 7.00 +32.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

BTTS 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 66.7% 1.50 -17.6%

Away O1.5 29.3% 22.2% 4.50 +19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PAOK2.0

Levadiakos1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PAOK · PPG 2.15

LEVADIAKOS · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

PAOK (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -21.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +0.2%

Levadiakos (A) 21.9%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

PAOK face Levadiakos in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PAOK a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Levadiakos 22%, so PAOK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for PAOK and 1.0 for Levadiakos (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PAOK are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.30 for Levadiakos. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +52.3%. This match finished 4-0.

PAOK vs Levadiakos Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Greece - Super League 1 Predictions