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Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Panetolikos

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Asteras Tripolis

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.1%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.1%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 36.4% 2.75 +23.8%

Draw 26.5% 34.7% 2.88 -14.2%

Away win 28.6% 38.2% 2.62 -15.0%

Over 2.5 47.6% 41.7% 2.40 +14.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 22.2% 4.50 +14.8%

BTTS 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 33.3% 3.00 +13.4%

Away O1.5 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Panetolikos1.3

Asteras Tripolis1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PANETOLIKOS · PPG 1.06

ASTERAS TRIPOLIS · PPG 0.96

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Panetolikos (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +23.8%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.2%

Asteras Tripolis (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Panetolikos face Asteras Tripolis in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Panetolikos a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Asteras Tripolis 29%, so Panetolikos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Panetolikos and 1.0 for Asteras Tripolis (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Panetolikos are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.96 for Asteras Tripolis. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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