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Paks vs Debreceni VSC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Paks

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

UPCOMING

Debreceni VSC

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.9%0-23.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.8%1-19.5%1-26.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.3%3-16.1%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.7%4+-23.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 53.2% 1.88 -10.9%

Draw 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Away win 29.0% 29.4% 3.40 -0.8%

Over 2.5 62.4% 71.4% 1.40 -12.6%

Over 3.5 40.2% 51.3% 1.95 -21.6%

BTTS 61.5% 74.1% 1.35 -17.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 64.5% 1.55 -13.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paks2.0

Debreceni VSC1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKS · PPG 1.91

DEBRECENI VSC · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paks (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -10.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

Debreceni VSC (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paks face Debreceni VSC in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paks a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Debreceni VSC 29%, so Paks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Paks and 1.4 for Debreceni VSC (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paks are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.28 for Debreceni VSC.

Paks vs Debreceni VSC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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