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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Ironi Tiberias Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ironi Tiberias

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.3%0-24.9%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.6%1-111.5%1-27.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.0%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.5%3-14.7%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 54.3% 1.84 -26.6%

Draw 28.0% 29.0% 3.45 -2.0%

Away win 32.2% 25.3% 3.95 +27.2%

Over 2.5 51.9% 52.4% 1.91 -0.9%

Over 3.5 31.5% 30.3% 3.30 +4.0%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 46.4% 51.8% 1.93 -10.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 30.3% 3.30 +35.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

D 28% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ironi Kiryat Shmona1.6

Ironi Tiberias1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

IRONI KIRYAT SHMONA · PPG 1.44

IRONI TIBERIAS · PPG 1.17

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H) 39.9%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -26.6%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.0%

Ironi Tiberias (A) 32.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ironi Kiryat Shmona face Ironi Tiberias in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ironi Kiryat Shmona a 40% chance, the draw 28% and Ironi Tiberias 32%, so Ironi Kiryat Shmona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona and 1.3 for Ironi Tiberias (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ironi Kiryat Shmona are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.17 for Ironi Tiberias. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +35.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Ironi Tiberias Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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