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Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Netanya Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:30

Beitar Jerusalem

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Maccabi Netanya

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 47.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.2%0-24.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.7%1-111.4%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 70.4% 1.42 -44.9%

Draw 32.1% 21.5% 4.65 +49.3%

Away win 29.2% 17.2% 5.80 +41.6%

Over 2.5 51.1% 70.4% 1.42 -27.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 48.8% 2.05 -35.4%

BTTS 52.7% 65.4% 1.53 -19.4%

Home O1.5 47.7% 73.5% 1.36 -35.1%

Away O1.5 40.8% 32.3% 3.10 +26.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

D 32% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 5.5%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beitar Jerusalem1.6

Maccabi Netanya1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BEITAR JERUSALEM · PPG 1.86

MACCABI NETANYA · PPG 1.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Beitar Jerusalem (H) 38.8%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -44.9%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +49.3%

Maccabi Netanya (A) 29.2%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +41.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beitar Jerusalem face Maccabi Netanya in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beitar Jerusalem a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Maccabi Netanya 29%, so Beitar Jerusalem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Beitar Jerusalem and 1.3 for Maccabi Netanya (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beitar Jerusalem are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.38 for Maccabi Netanya. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.4%. This match finished 1-4.

Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Netanya Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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