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Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Katamon Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Hapoel Petah Tikva

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hapoel Katamon

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.3%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.0%1-111.5%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.2%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.8%3-14.9%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 38.2% 2.62 +16.1%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 29.0% 37.6% 2.66 -13.7%

Over 2.5 53.3% 47.6% 2.10 +11.9%

Over 3.5 31.5% 26.7% 3.75 +18.1%

BTTS 54.3% 56.5% 1.77 -3.9%

Home O1.5 47.7% 38.2% 2.62 +25.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 37.7% 2.65 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0✓ 9.0%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Petah Tikva1.6

Hapoel Katamon1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL PETAH TIKVA · PPG 1.21

HAPOEL KATAMON · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Petah Tikva (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +16.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Hapoel Katamon (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Petah Tikva face Hapoel Katamon in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Petah Tikva a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Hapoel Katamon 29%, so Hapoel Petah Tikva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hapoel Petah Tikva and 1.3 for Hapoel Katamon (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Petah Tikva are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.21 for Hapoel Katamon. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Katamon Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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