Today / Moldova - Super Liga / Zimbru vs Milsami Orhei

Zimbru vs Milsami Orhei Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:00

Zimbru

PPG 1.69 · HOME

UPCOMING

Milsami Orhei

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-14.7%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.6%1-19.5%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.1%3-16.7%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.5%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 18.1% — — —

Over 2.5 54.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 58.3% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -47.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 60% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zimbru2.0

Milsami Orhei0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZIMBRU · PPG 1.69

MILSAMI ORHEI · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zimbru (H) 59.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Milsami Orhei (A) 18.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Zimbru face Milsami Orhei in Moldova - Super Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zimbru a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Milsami Orhei 18%, so Zimbru are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Zimbru and 0.8 for Milsami Orhei (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zimbru are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.12 for Milsami Orhei.

Zimbru vs Milsami Orhei Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Moldova - Super Liga Predictions