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Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:55

Khorfakkan

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al-Dhafra

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.6%0-24.7%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.5%1-110.8%1-27.8%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.4%3-14.9%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.9%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 46.5% 2.15 -9.9%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -13.1%

Away win 34.4% 34.5% 2.90 -0.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.0% 2.50 -8.3%

BTTS 60.2% 65.4% 1.53 -7.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.8% 1.93 -5.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 43.7% 2.29 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.2%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0✓ 6.2%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Khorfakkan1.7

Al-Dhafra1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KHORFAKKAN · PPG 0.94

AL-DHAFRA · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Khorfakkan (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -9.9%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.1%

Al-Dhafra (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Khorfakkan face Al-Dhafra in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Khorfakkan a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Dhafra 34%, so Khorfakkan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Khorfakkan and 1.4 for Al-Dhafra (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Khorfakkan are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.73 for Al-Dhafra. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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