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Al-Jazira vs Ajman Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:55

Al-Jazira

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ajman

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.2%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.2%1-110.8%1-27.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.2%3-15.5%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.6%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 62.5% 1.60 -25.8%

Draw 24.3% 25.6% 3.90 -3.1%

Away win 29.3% 20.8% 4.80 +24.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 41.7% 2.40 -11.9%

BTTS 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 64.5% 1.55 -24.2%

Away O1.5 39.0% 33.3% 3.00 +17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.1%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Jazira1.7

Ajman1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-JAZIRA · PPG 1.77

AJMAN · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Jazira (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -25.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.1%

Ajman (A) 29.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Jazira face Ajman in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Jazira a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Ajman 29%, so Al-Jazira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al-Jazira and 1.3 for Ajman (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Jazira are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.73 for Ajman. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Al-Jazira vs Ajman Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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