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Chiangrai Utd vs Bangkok Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:00

Chiangrai Utd

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Bangkok Utd

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.3%0-26.3%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.9%1-113.3%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-17.8%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 26.7% 3.75 +40.3%

Draw 28.4% 29.0% 3.45 -2.0%

Away win 34.2% 54.6% 1.83 -37.4%

Over 2.5 40.1% 55.6% 1.80 -27.8%

Over 3.5 19.8% 33.3% 3.00 -40.6%

BTTS 46.4% 59.9% 1.67 -22.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.4%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chiangrai Utd1.2

Bangkok Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIANGRAI UTD · PPG 1.25

BANGKOK UTD · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Chiangrai Utd (H) 37.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +40.3%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.0%

Bangkok Utd (A) 34.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chiangrai Utd face Bangkok Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chiangrai Utd a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Bangkok Utd 34%, so Chiangrai Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chiangrai Utd and 1.1 for Bangkok Utd (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chiangrai Utd are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Bangkok Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Chiangrai Utd vs Bangkok Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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